A statistician noted that the way the bond market reacted on Friday to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank resulted in sizeable interest-rate shifts that only occur within six months of a recession 98% of the time.  That would pull my forecast forward a couple months, as I thought the most likely start month for our next recession is November.

That Spectre is the best Bond film?  How did I overlook this one!?!?!

If the Russia/Ukraine thing blows, people in the US may not have access to LJ anymore ( Read more... )

I think interest rates are more rational than stock valuations.

This is a relative judgment, heh, neither of them are rational. But if you're trying to bet on one or the other, I think betting on interest rates is the safer bet ( Read more... )

If US Treasury Bonds are truly "the safest investment in the world" as the US mainstream media tell us repeatedly, why are the government bonds of 28 countries trading at lower interest rates than US Treasury Bonds ( Read more... )

Running a loan simulation at the Kia Finance website and it looks like I could get a 3% interest rate from them if I switch gears on Monday morning and finance at the dealer instead of waiting an unknown amount of time for my credit union to get their act together ( Read more... )

I typed the words "safest investment" into the search engine, and the first result told me that "US Treasury bonds are widely considered the safest investments on earth."

Yet, earlier this year I shorted US Treasuries and made 12% on my trade in a matter of weeks.  Vanguard's Extended Duration Treasury ETF is down 15% so far this year.  How could " ( Read more... )

The all-time greatest stock market bubble in US history, as measured by the Shiller PE ratio, peaked around January 2000.  Also known as the Dot-Com Bubble, the US stock market had never been so expensive.

Previously, you had to go all the way back to 1929, the Roaring Twenties, to find the greatest stock market bubble in US history.

But right now, ( Read more... )